A632.1.4 RB_CliftonEmily

Chapter 3 of the Wharton text gives examples of complex formulas used by researchers to solve “multistage problems”.  These formulas input the variables and probabilities to provide a solution with the most chance of success. The text calls this approach “dynamic programming” and is credited to exploiting the idea that “a decision problem may involve a large number of stages…one need not enumerate and take expectancies of all possible contingent future realizations to arrive at an optimum decision policy” (Wharton, 2001, p. 42). While the text states that the examples of dynamic programming given were simple, I must disagree. I went over and over the equations in my head and saw nothing simplistic about them. The variables and outcomes seemed as complex as life itself, and perhaps that is the way I was meant to see it, the formulas were my metaphor for life. With that said, the text does include a caveat offering advice on how “knowing when to trust our intuition” (Wharton, 2001, p. 42). Most individuals do not solve decision making problems using mathematical equations, and most resort to weighing all the options out, going over the pros and cons, and occasionally involving others in their decision making process. I have never used a mathematical equation to assist me with making a decision, other than marking out what my variables would be and how each would affect the outcome. It has made it on paper before, in a list of pros and cons, but never in a formula such as this. Perhaps it would be beneficial for me to adopt a more systematic means by which to make decisions, something more calculated and finite. In educational and professional arenas I feel that I am adept at making effective decisions with typically good outcomes, however it is in my personal life where I falter and struggle most often. I tend to take a less rational, more emotional approach to making decisions and it can result in hurt and heartache. If I was able to extract the variables and possible outcomes from my emotions, perhaps my decisions would change and my results are more beneficial. This could impact my forward planning exponentially, if applied. The Wharton text outlines that “decision makers draw unbiased insights about the current state of the world from variable data…and previous beliefs about the world are updated in light of new data in an unbiased manner” (Wharton, 2001, p. 47-48). I concur that I am able to draw insight base in variable data and make adjustments to my beliefs based on new data presented, however I am unsure how unbiased they are. Wouldn’t the insights and adjustments being made come from my perception of the world around me? Perhaps this is where the application of dynamic decision analysis used to predict future impact comes into play.

References:

Hoch, S. J., Kunreuther, H., & Gunther, R. E. (2001). Wharton on making decisions. New York: Wiley.